中国省际区域碳减排差异问题的研究进展

China Provincial Carbon Emissions Differences Research Progress and Prospect

气候变化已经成为人类发展的一大挑战。2009年中国政府正式提出了温室气体减排计划,承诺到2020年单位GDP温室气体排放量比2005年下降40%至45%。节能减排是中国可持续发展的内在要求,无论国际气候谈判进展如何中国都将坚定不移地走绿色低碳发展之路。国家宏观层面明确的碳减排目标最终需要在区域层次上具体落实。中国城镇化正处于战略转型的重要阶段,城镇化的推进需要探索均衡、协调和可持续的发展之路。低碳发展和区域均衡协调发展既是挑战也是机遇。本文着重对省际区域碳排放核算方法、省际区域碳排放的区域格局及转移、省际区域碳排放的动因、排放绩效和省际区域碳排放目标分解设定进行回顾和述评。通过对国内外相关研究系统地进行了归纳和总结,本文客观分析和评价了以上四个问题的研究现状和存在的问题。最后对中国省际区域碳减排差异问题的重点领域和发展方向进行了展望,为政策研究与理论研究提供参考。为了建立科学合理可行促进区域均衡发展的差异化区域碳减排政策,未来还需要进一步关注深化研究的主题包括:1省际区域碳排放核算方法需要建立统一的标准,从生产者和消费者共同承担责任的视角核算省际区域碳排放是未来的研究方向。2从微观角度考虑企业决策导致的东中西部区域间产业转移与碳排放之间的相互关系研究是未来研究的难点和重点。3中国碳减排目标总量地区分解属于命令与控制的行政手段控制碳排放的政策工具。区域碳减排目标的设定需要考虑对改变地方官员和企业决策方式的促进作用。总量目标的有效设定是总量控制与交易的前提。4不同行业、不同区域设定"共同但有区别"的碳减排目标需要与国家战略保持一致的同时体现行业和区域特点。中国幅员辽阔,合理的政策设计需要体现行业和区域特点,不同行业和地区需要分阶段采取不同的推进策略。省际区域碳减排差异研究的几个主要问题都面临着所需有效数据的可获得性的制约以及经济社会发展的不确定性的挑战。

Climate change has become a great challenge to the human development. Confronted with the same problem, in 2009, China officially made a commitment to cutting down greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP in 2020 by 40 -45% compared to that in 2005. Because energy-conserving emission reduction is the inherent requirement for China＇ s sustainable development, so no matter how negotiation progress of international climate is China will take the road to green development of low-carbon unswervingly. Carbon emission reduction goal of the country set in 2009 needs realizing at the regional level finally. China＇ s urbanization is at the important stages of the changes in strategies; the promotion of the urbanization needs to explore the balanced, coordinated and sustainable development road. The carbon emission goal set by China and the unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable development of China＇s urbanization determined that low-carbon development and regional balanced development are both challenges as well as opportunities. This article emphatically reviews the provincial carbon emissions accounting methods, the provincial regional carbon emissions layout and transfer patterns, and provincial carbon emissions causes, performance and target decomposition. By summarizing domestic and foreign relevant research systematically, this paper objectively analyzes and evaluates the research status of the above four questions and problems. Finally, the Chinese provincial carbon emissions differences of key areas and development direction is prospected, and references for policy research and theory research are provided. In order to establish scientific and reasonable reduction policies to promote the differentiation of balanced development of the regional area, a further study on several issues as follows needs to be conducted： firstly, provincial carbon accounting methods should be reestablished with a unified standard. The accounting methods fi＇om the perspective of producers and consumers to share responsibility will be the direction for future research. Secondly, the relationship between regional industrial transfer and carbon emission induced by enterprises＇ decision-making from the microscopic view is the difficult point of the research in the future. Thirdly, total carbon reduction target region decomposition is a kind of administrative means to control carbon emissions policy tools. How to build an effective evaluation mechanism to stimulate local officials and change the mode of decision-making of the enterprises is a thorny problem in the regional decomposition of carbon emission reduction. Effective setting of total goal is the precondition of cap-and-trade. Fourthly, the goal of ＇ Common but Differentiated Responsibility＇ for different industries and regions must be consistent with national carbon emission strategy while reflecting the characteristics of different industries and regions. Owing to the fact that China is vast in territory, reasonable policy design needs to reflect industry and regional characteristics, and different trades and area need to adopt different promotion tactics stage by stage. Several major issues of the differentiation research of provincial carbon emission reduction are limited by the valid data required and challenged by the uncertainty of economic and social development.