基于情景分析法的南京市低碳城市建设研究

Research on the Construction of Low-Carbon City Based on Scenario Analysis in Nanjing City

气候变化、碳排放与城市化过程相交织,城市作为工业、建筑、交通的载体,也是高能耗、高碳排放的主要源头,需要改变传统城市发展的模式来应对全球变暖的挑战。对南京市的建筑、交通、工业3个方面CO2排放情况进行详细分析。在建筑方面,主要以民用建筑的电耗和热耗来计算南京建筑的碳排放总量。在交通方面,主要根据对交通碳排放有主要影响作用的因素,借助低碳城市模型,运用能源折算法计算交通碳排放总量。在工业方面,仍然采用能源折算法,运用低碳工业模型,计算南京工业碳排放总量。运用情景分析法预测未来碳排放目标,提出南京建设低碳城市的对策建议。

Climate change, carbon emissions interlace with urbanization process, cities are not only the carrier of industry, construction, transportation, but also the main source of high energy consumption and high carbon emissions. In order to deal with the challenge of global warming, we need to change the traditional pattern of urban development. The paper makes a detailed analysis on CO2 emissions from three aspects of Nanjing＇ s construction, transport, industry. In the aspect of building, the paper calculates Nanjing＇ s building carbon emissions, especially power consumption and heat consumption of civil buildings （ including residential buildings and public buildings）. In the aspect of transportation, mainly according to the main influential factors of the traffic carbon emissions, the paper calculates the total amount of traffic carbon emissions with the aid of low carbon city＇ s model and the energy conversion method. In the industrial sector, the energy conversion method and low carbon building model are also used to calculate Nanjing＇ s industrial carbon emissions.