金融深化改革背景下外部冲击的价格传导效应研究

The Study of the Effect of External Shocks' Price Pass-through under the Background of Deepening Financial Reform

该文首先运用M-F-D模型分析了外部冲击对一国价格水平造成的影响,然后建立了SVAR模型,实证检验了外部冲击对我国价格的传导效应。结果显示,外部冲击对中国股市价格的影响较为显著,对CPI和房价的影响微弱;外部冲击的汇率传导渠道反映迅速,而利率渠道的传导有一定的滞后性。通过模拟市场化条件下汇率、利率的波动,发现它们均不会造成物价和房地产价格的剧烈波动。因此,在货币政策制定方面,在深化改革的进程中可以适当降低外部冲击对中国CPI和房价的影响权重。

Firstly,under the framework of M-F-D model,this paper analyze the external shocks on a country＇s price level from theoretical level. Then SVAR model is established to empirically test the price＇s pass-through effect. The outcome shows that the impact of external shocks on the price of China＇s stock market＇s is significant and the impact on the CPI and house price is weak. About the pass-through channel,the exchange rate＇s path is expedite. However,the pass-through of the interest rate rate has lag effect. Meantime,the paper simulate the fluctuations of exchange rate and interest rate under the conditions of market which will not result in a sharp fluctuations of CPI or the house price. In the process of deepening financial reform,China＇s monetary policymakers don＇t need to care too much about external shock＇s impacts on China＇s CPI and house prices.