上海自贸区金融开放、资本流动与利率市场化

The Shanghai Free Trade Zone of Financial Opening,Capital Flows and Interest Rate Marketization

利率市场化是自贸区金融开放的重要内容,研究如何充分发挥上海自贸区对中国利率市场化的推进作用具有重要的现实意义。该文以自贸区金融开放为视角,利率平价理论为基础,研究我国利率市场化的决定机制。结果表明:(1)自贸区的金融开放会引起资本流动,资本的流动会改变自贸区内资金的供给状况进而影响利率水平,而利率市场化的推进又会进一步促进金融开放,它们是一个相互促进、密不可分和动态循环的系统。(2)我国利率市场化改革将会经历利率官定、利率非对称决定和利率由市场资金供求关系决定等三个阶段,并且这三个阶段是承前启后,互动融合的过程。(3)目前我国利率市场化改革正处于利率非对称决定阶段,发挥自贸区对国内外资本的缓冲作用,以及由此形成的倒逼机制,是最终实现利率市场化关键。

The marketization of interest rate is an important issue of the free trade area of financial openness,it has important practical significance to research how to give full play to Shanghai FTA on the advance of interest rate marketization. This article takes the free trade area on the perspective of financial opening,the interest rate parity theory as the foundation,to study the decision mechanism of Chinese interest rate marketization. The results showed that：（ 1） free trade area of the financial openness will cause capital flows,capital flows will change money supply situation,thus impact the level of interest rates within a certain area,and the advance of interest rate marketization will further promote the financial opening,which is a mutual promotion,inseparable system and dynamic circulation.（ 2） In China,the interest rate marketization reform will experience three stage,which is official interest rate decisions,asymmetric interest rate decision and the marketization of interest rate decision,the three stage is the process of interaction,carrying and fusion.（ 3） In China,the current interest rate marketization is in the asymmetric interest rate decision stage. The key to achieving interest rate marketization reform is how to play the role of buffer free trade on domestic and foreign capital,and thus formed forced mechanism.