中国产业结构变动驱动要素的动态轨迹——基于新古典经济学要素流动视角的研究

The Trajectory Study On Dynamic interpretation of China's industrial structure——Based on the Perspective of neoclassical Economics Factor Mobility Research

该文使用重力模型和平均结构变动度测量法,从空间和时间两个维度,对中国1978-2012年产业结构变动的轨迹进行甄别,并从新古典经济学要素流动的视角对产业结构变动的动态轨迹进行研究。研究结果发现,在空间维度中,第一产业产值重心受自然因素的影响呈无规律的转移迹象;第二产业产值重心尽管出现回流现象,但总体向西部移动;第三产业产值重心总体上呈现"Z"形动态转移轨迹。引起产业产值动态转移的是劳动力和资本要素在全国范围内流动的结果。在时间维度中,经济总量比重以第二和第三产业为主,劳动力要素由第一产业大量流向第三产业,资本要素分别向第二产业和第三产业流动,并且资本要素流向第三产业的速度快于流向第二产业的速度。

Using gravity model and measure the average change in the structure of the law,from the two dimensions of space and time,to track changes in the industrial structure of China＇ s 1978- 2012 years were screened,and elements of neoclassical economics perspective on the industry structure changes in flow dynamics trajectories interpret. The study found that the spatial dimension,the first signs of industry output shift the center of gravity affected by natural factors,there is no law,despite the focus of the second industrial output reflow phenomenon,but the overall direction of moving to the west,the center of gravity of the tertiary industry output value of the whole show ＂Z＂shaped dynamic transfer trajectory,resulting in the transfer of industrial output is the result of the dynamic elements of labor and capital flows in the country; in a time dimension,economic output in the second and third industries,labor factor is mainly composed of the first industry flows tertiary industry,capital factors are the second and tertiary industries flow and flow to the tertiary industry significantly faster than the second industry. This study,from the two dimensions of space and time on the dynamic changes in the trajectory of China＇ s industrial structure is decomposed intrinsic screening drivers to upgrade China＇s industrial structure,accelerate the upgrading of industrial structure for the goal to provide new ideas.