劳动生产率提升效应与上海经济转型升级——基于制造业劳动生产率的非参数生产前沿动态分析

Productivity Promotion Effect and Shanghai's Economic Transformation and Escalation

当前,上海面临着既要保持合理经济增长速度,又要实现经济转型发展的双重艰巨任务,而劳动生产率则是完成这两大任务的关键因素。一方面,经济增长本质上是劳动生产率提升与劳动力增长共同作用的结果,在当前上海人口红利趋于减弱的形势下,继续提升劳动生产率是保持经济合理增长的关键环节;另一方面,经济转型又要求转变经济增长方式,由主要依赖物质消耗转为主要依赖广义的技术进步。而资本深化、技术进步和技术效率提升又是推动劳动生产率持续增长的三个要素。该文利用非参数生产前沿动态分析模型,对"十五"时期以来上海制造业劳动生产率增长要素进行拆解分析。结果显示,近年来虽然上海制造业增加值与劳动生产率呈现同步回落走势,但技术进步与技术效率提升对劳动生产率增长的贡献逐步增强,表明上海经济已初步显现转型升级的特征。由此,在上海经济转型升级的关键时期,更加需要关注技术、管理与制度创新,并且适度兼顾资本深化的作用,力求在推进经济转型升级的同时,保持经济的合理增速。

Nowadays,Shanghai is facing the task of realizing the economic transformation and escalation while keeping the reasonable growth rate. The essence of economic growth is combination effect of productivity promotion and labor force growth. Because of the recession of demographic dividend,continuous promotion of productivity is becoming the key factor of economic growth. On the other hand,economic transformation means the main factor of economic growth should be switched from material consumption to generalized technical progress. And capital deepening,technical progress and technical catch-up are the basic elements to promote the productivity. This article uses nonparametric production frontiers approach to analyze the productivity growth of shanghai manufacturing industries from year 2000. Results shows that the contributions of technical progress and technical catch-up to the promotion of productivity are raising,while the growth of manufacturing industries and its productivity are reducing. It indicates some initial characters of Shanghai＇s economic transformation and escalation. So,Shanghai should pay more attention to innovation on technology,administration and regulation,and also give some consideration to capital deepening.