基于AFC数据的城轨乘客出行路径选择比例估计方法

Estimation method of passenger route choice proportion in urban rail transit based on AFC data

在分析城市轨道交通乘客旅行时间组成要素及其分布特性的基础上,提出了一种基于AFC数据的乘客出行路径选择比例估计方法.首先,采用单路径OD实际旅行时间数据,获得旅行时间组成要素的概率分布参数;然后,估计出多路径OD间各路径旅行时间的概率分布参数,并结合多路径OD实际旅行时间数据,得到各条路径的选择比例.仿真实验结果表明,在客流到达均衡、列车按图行车的假设前提下,该方法估计的路径选择比例误差小于1%.

The passenger travel time components in urban rail transit and the corresponding distribution characteristics are analyzed. And an estimation method of passenger route choice proportion based on automatic fare collection （AFC） data is proposed. First, the probability distribution parameters of travel time components are calculated by using actual travel time data of origin-destination （OD） with single route. Then, the probability distribution parameters of travel time of each route for OD with multi-route are estimated. The route choice proportion of each route is obtained by using actual travel time data of OD with multi-route. The simulation results show that the estimation error by the proposed method is less than 1% under the assumption that passengers arrive at the metro staion evenly and trains operate on schedule.