气候变暖对阿勒泰地区春玉米播种期和种植布局的影响

Influence of climate warming on seeding time and cultivation pattern of spring maize in Altai region

采用阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961—2010年逐日平均气温资料，使用线性趋势分析、累积距平、t检验并基于Kriging插值法，分析近50年日平均气温稳定通过≥10℃的初日、终日、持续日数和积温的时空变化特征，揭示春玉米播种期及种植布局的变化规律。结果表明，阿勒泰地区近50年≥10℃积温呈现初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数延长、积温增加的现象，其倾向率分别为0．3、1．3、1．6 d·10a－1和57．1℃·10a－1，且突变年份均发生在20世纪90年代中期。各县市春玉米播种期提前3～8 d ，生长季延长6～11 d。突变前青河东部不能种植春玉米，晚熟品种不能种植或种植风险较大。随着气候不断变暖，春玉米不同熟性品种可种植区逐渐东扩，各县市春玉米在品种熟性上均发生了改变，表现为由不能种植到种植早熟、早熟向中（晚）熟、中晚熟向晚熟品种的变化。

To reveal the rules of changes in seeding time and planting pattern of spring maize ,based on the daily temperature data of 7 meteorological stations in Altai region during 1961—2010 ,the spatiotemporal changes of the first date ,final date ,duration ,and accumulated temperature were analyzed when the temperature reached 10℃ or higher , using the methods of linear regression ,accumulative anomaly ,T-test and Kriging based mixed interpolation .The results showed that accumulated temperature ,duration ,first date ,and final date ,all showed a significant increasing tendency in recent 50 years ,with the rates of 57 .1 ℃·10a-1 ,1 .6 d·10a-1 ,1 .3 d·10a-1 ,0 .3 d·10a-1 ,respectively .All changes took place in mid 90 s .Climate warming resulted in 3~8 day advance of seeding time and 6~11 day delay of the growth of spring maize .Before the climate change ,east Qinghe region was not suitable for the cultivation of spring corn ,nor the late maturing cultivars due to the incapability or the high risks in planting .With the climate warming , planting areas for different varieties of spring corn gradually expanded eastward ,and the cultivar maturities in different counties and cities showed variations .The results showed that regions that were not suitable for planting now were capable of planting early mature cultivars ,regions that were planted with early mature cultivars were good for mid-season/late ma-ture ones ,and regions that used to have mid-season/late mature varieties were now to have planted with late varieties .