影响我国能源消费总量增长的因素分析——基于LMDI和Granger因果关系

Analysis of Energy Consumption Growth Based on LMDI and Granger Causality

为达到能源消费总量控制目标,本文采用指数分解方法分析能源消费总量变化原因,并且分析能源消费与GDP、产业结构、技术进步、能源价格等因素间的关系,为能源消费总量控制提供决策支持。分析结果表明:产业结构不合理是影响能源消费总量增长的重要原因,调整产业结构,降低第二产业尤其是工业比重对于降低能源消费总量具有重要意义;应当加快能源价格市场化进程,发挥价格在能源消费中的调控功能;应当加大基础科研的投入,促进生产技术进步,提高能源利用效率。

To achieve the goal of total energy consumption control, we use index decomposition method to analyze the causes of energy consumption changes. We analyze the relationship between total energy consumption and GDP, industrial structure, technological progress, energy prices, after comprehensively studying domestic and international researches. The results show that irrational industrial structure is an important factor to affect the growth of total energy consumption. To lower the share of secondary industry, especially the proportion of industry is important for the total energy consumption control. We should speed up the process of market energy prices. The energy prices should play regulating function in energy consumption. We should increase investment in basic research to promote the advancement of production technology and improve energy efficiency. The results can provide decision support for total energy consumption control.