四川蚕桑业时空格局演变特征及驱动机制

The spatio-temporal evolution pattern and its driving forces of the sericulture industry in Sichuan Province

基于近20年蚕桑产业发展数据,分析了四川省蚕桑产量变化、区域分布和时空演变特征,并利用灰色关联方法对蚕桑产业发展的驱动机制进行分析。研究结果表明:四川省桑园面积逐步稳定,蚕茧总量保持稳定增长,南充市、绵阳市、凉山州、宜宾市是蚕桑优势产区;攀西、川南、川中北三大优势蚕桑产业带已基本形成,蚕桑产业中心南移趋势明显;劳动力数量、经济发展水平和技术进步影响蚕桑产业发展,桑园面积、养蚕户数、发种量、蚕桑比较效益对蚕茧产量分布表现为正向相关;转变产业发展方式、进行机制体制创新和构建多元化产业体系成为四川省未来蚕桑产业发展的重点。

Based on nearly twenty years of data of the sericulture industry in Sichuan Province, this paper examined the changes of the silkworm production, the geographical distribution and the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of the sericulture industry, and then analyzed the driving forces for the evolution of sericulture industry using gray correlation method. Results show that 1） the area of mulberry field in Sichuan Province becomes stable gradually and the total product of cocoons shows a steady growth; 2） Nanehong, Mianyang, Liangshan, and Yibin are places with yield advantage; 3） three serieulture industrial belts of Panxi, South Sichuan, and Mid-northern Sichuan have been established with an obvious southward moving tendency; 4） the labor capital, economic development, and technological progress have influences on the sericulture industry development; and 5） the size of mulberry acreage, the number of sericulture households, the seed rating, and the comparative benefits of sericulture were positively related to the cocoon production distribution. This research suggests that the development focuses of the sericulture industry in Sichuan Province should include the following： changing the industrial development mode, encouraging production mechanism innovation, and establishing a diversified sericulture industry.