珠三角土地利用与生态环境协调发展时空演变规律研究

Study on space-time evolution of coordinated development between land use and ecological environment in the Pearl River Delta

为探讨珠三角地区1999—2008年土地利用与生态环境协调发展情况及其时空演变规律,运用实证分析法和多指标综合评价法,采用协调发展度定量评价模型和重心转移模型,进行时空差异分析。结果显示:珠三角地区整体协调发展度不高;1999—2008年整体好转,但2003—2004年除深圳外均有不同程度的下降;空间差异明显,经济较发达地区明显好于其他地区;研究期内珠三角地区协调发展度重心有往东北方向转移趋势。因此,珠三角地区土地利用与生态环境协调发展意识还有待加强;珠三角协调发展地区差异可为城市发展模式提供借鉴;珠江口东岸地区宜坚持持续协调发展战略,发挥示范作用;珠江口西岸地区宜坚持强化协调发展战略,优化土地利用模式,加强区域间协作。

This paper used methods of empirical analysis and multi index evaluation with the quantitative evaluation model of coordinated development and gravity center transfer model to discuss the spatial-temporal evolution of coordinated development between land use and ecological environment in the Pearl River Delta from 1999 to 2008. The results indicated that the overall level of coordinated development degree was not high; the overall degree improved from 1999 to2008, but declined in 2003-2004 in varying degrees except Shenzhen; obvious space difference was existed, economic developed area was much better than other areas; coordinated development degree of the Pearl River Delta had a tendency to transfer to the northeast during the research period. Therefore, land use and ecological environment coordinated development consciousness remained to be strengthened in the Pearl River Delta. Regional differences served as a reference model for the urban development. It is concluded that Pearl River mouth eastern area should adhere to sustainable coordination development strategy to play an exemplary role. Besides, the west area should insist on strengthening coordination development strategy to optimize land use pattern and strengthen regional cooperation.