中国西南地区某些地震区强震孕育周期界定

The definition of seismogenic period of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones in southwest China

运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及相关预测方法,界定了中国西南地区某些地震区的强震孕育周期,分析了这些地震区未来地震趋势.结果表明:得荣地震区与小江地震区当前孕育周期还未结束,未来分别有大震与巨震事件发生.鲜水河地震区与中缅边境地震区1已经历一个完整的孕育周期,未来分别有大(巨)震与强震事件发生.昭通地震区已经历一个完整的孕育周期,若2014年鲁甸地震实际震级不小于MS6.1级,则其为第二孕育周期的主震事件.西昌地震区与云龙地震区已经历两个完整的孕育周期,未来分别有大震与强震事件发生.下关-楚雄地震区已经历三个完整的孕育周期,目前处于第四孕育周期主震临震阶段.

According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the periods of strong earthquakes for some seismic zones in southwest China are defined in the paper.Meanwhile,the analysis on the earthquake situation for these seismic zones is also presented.The results suggest that current seismogenic periods in Derong and Xiaojiang seismic zones are not over,major and great earthquakes will occur respectively.One complete seismogenic period has passed and strong or major（great）earthquakes will occur in No.1 China-Burma border and Xianshuihe seismic zones respectively.Zhaotong seismic zone has undergone a complete seismogenic period and if the actual magnitude of Ludian earthquake in 2014 is not less than MS 6.1,it is a main shock event in the second seismogenic period.Two complete seismogenic periods have passed and strong or major earthquake will occur in Yunlong and Xichang seismic zones.Xiaguan-Chuxiong seismic zone has undergone three complete seismogenic periods and is currently at the stage of impending main shock in the forth seismogenic period.