基于故障树分析法的亚热带地区泥石流危险性评价

Hazard Assessment of Debris Flow in Subtropical Area Based on Fault Tree Analysis

通过分析泥石流危害的影响因子及其间存在的逻辑关系,运用故障树分析法(FTA),针对亚热带地区泥石流主要危害线域工程的特点,建立了泥石流灾害评价故障树,并应用于泥石流危险性评价。对广东省乐昌市16条泥石流沟危险度的评价结果表明,该方法与传统灰色关联度危险度评价法结果一致性较高,且更符合实际情况。该法克服了传统方法因子、权重不灵活,未考虑因子之间的非线性关系,及地区适用局限性等问题。从而证明了故障树分析(FTA)法在泥石流危险性评价应用中的有效性和可行性。

The hazard assessment of debris flow was conducted by applying fault tree analysis（FTA） on characteristics of debris flow line engineering in subtropical area after analyzing influence factors of debris flow and the logical relationships between them. The new hazard assessment was applied to evaluate the haz- ard degree of 16 debris flow gullies in Lechang City of Guangdong Province. The results showed that it is more reasonable than the traditional grey correlation method because it solved some of the problems the tradi- tional method always got such as the applying area was limited, the influence factors and weight were inflexi- ble, and the non-linear relationship between them was not considered. Therefore, the fault tree analysis （FTA） was proved to be an effective and feasible method for the hazard assessment of debris flow.