1961-2010年黄河源区蓝绿水资源时空变化

Spatio-temporal Change of Blue Water and Green Water Resources in Source Region of Yellow River During 1961-2010

利用SWAT(soil and water assessment tool,SWAT)模型和非参数检验方法(Mann—Kendall),从时空尺度上分析了黄河源区1961—2010年蓝绿水资源量多年平均变化和各生长季节的变化规律。研究结果表明,在时间上,近50a来,黄河源区绿水资源量多年平均是蓝水的2倍以上。黄河源区蓝水资源春、秋两季减少,秋季显著减少,减少幅度0.355mm/a,夏季略微增加;绿水资源春季减少,夏、秋两季增加,秋季显著增加,增加幅度0.286mm/a。在空间上,黄河源区蓝绿水资源量在各季节呈现出由东南向西北递减的趋势,东南部地区蓝水资源秋季减少明显,减小幅度最大为1.98mm/a,绿水资源量夏、秋两季增加明显,最大为1.62mm/a。随全球气候的变化,蓝绿水资源量在时空上差异将会进一步加大。因此,应加强黄河源区水资源的管理,减少源区绿水尤其是其中无效用水(蒸发)的消耗,减少生长季高耗水作物的种植,以保证中下游地区水量的有序供给。

Based on the SWAT（soil and water assessment tool, SWAT） model and Mann--Kendall method, the spatio-temporal change of blue water and green water resources in different growing season over the source of the Yellow River from 1961-2010 were analyzed. The results showed that the amount of green water resources was generally 2 times of blue water resources in the source region of the Yellow River. Blue water resources in spring and autumn showed a declining trend, and significantly decreased by 0. 355 mm/a in autumn, while a weak increasing trend in summer. Green water resources showed an increasing trend in sum- mer and autumn, and significantly increased by 0. 286 mm/a in autumn, while decreasing trend in spring. From southeast to northwest, blue water and green water showed progressively decreasing trend. In the southeast, blue water resources decreased by 1.98 mm/a in autumn while green water resources increased in summer and autumn with the largest slope 1.62 mm/a. Because of global climate changes, the spatiotempo- ral difference in blue water and green water resources will be further increase. Hence, it is urgent to strengthen the systematic management of water resources in the source region. And the amount of inefficient water consumption and the high water consumption crops should be reduced. Thus the supply of water in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River can be guaranteed.