供需视角下煤炭安全评价指标体系与实证

Parameters System of Coal Safety Assessment and Some Demonstrations under the Perspective of Supply and Demand

通过分析煤炭供需安全的影响因素,构建煤炭安全评价指标体系,运用AHP法、熵值法和TOPSIS分析方法,对2008-2011年中国煤炭安全度进行测算。结果表明:造成煤炭安全波动的主要因素包括新增煤炭探明储量的变化、替代能源占能源消费比重的变化、煤炭资源供需增速比值的变化。因此,维护我国煤炭安全需要进一步增加煤炭探明储量、提高替代能源消费比例和维持煤炭供需增速稳定,实现煤炭的有效供给。

Through analysis of the inlfuences with regard to safety of coal supply and demand, and establishing parameters system of coal safety assessment, this paper has measured China’s coal degree of safety between 2008 and 2011 by using APH method, entropy method, and analytical method of TOPSIS. The results show that the main factors inlfuencing coal safety lfuctuation include the change of new proven reserves of coal, the change of the proportion of alternative energy in energy consumption, and the change of the growth ratio of supply and demand of coal resources. In response to this, this paper offers that to maintain the security of coal, we must devote further efforts to increase proven reserves of coal, boost the share of consumption of alternative energy, maintain the stable growth of coal supply and demand, and reach effective supply of coal.