基于PLS1的哈尔滨市PM_(2.5)与空气污染物相关性分析

Correlation Analysis Based on PSL1 between PM2.5 and Air Pollutants in Harbin City

以往对PM2.5的研究多集中在气象因子或单一空气污染物对PM2.5质量浓度变化的影响,未考虑多种空气污染物对PM2.5质量浓度的协同作用。通过哈尔滨市环保局发布的2014年1月份(共31 d)市区内主要空气污染物SO2、NO2、PM10、CO、O3、PM2.5的质量浓度数据,运用相关性分析、PLS1和通径分析方法,研究哈尔滨市区内主要空气污染物对PM2.5质量浓度变化的直接影响、通过其他空气污染物的间接影响及污染物之间的协同作用。结果表明,SO2、NO2、PM10、CO与PM2.5质量浓度显著性相关,O3与PM2.5质量浓度相关性不显著,SO2、NO2、PM10、CO之间存在严重的复相关性。依据相关性分析结果,建立了SO2、NO2、PM10、CO对PM2.5质量浓度的PSL1模型,模型的拟合优度r2为0.852,模型拟合良好。对所建立的模型进行通径分析,结果显示,SO2、NO2、PM10、CO对PM2.5质量浓度变化的直接作用分别为0.005、-0.142、-0.140、1.191,CO对PM2.5质量浓度变化的直接影响作用最大。SO2、NO2、PM10通过CO对PM2.5质量浓度变化的间接作用分别为0.706、1.011、1.118均大于它们对PM2.5质量浓度变化的直接作用。SO2、NO2、PM10、CO对PM2.5质量浓度变化的总决定系数为85.9%。CO是主要空气污染物中影响PM2.5质量浓度变化的主要因素,降低冬季煤炭供暖期CO的排放量,有利于提高空气环境质量,降低对人体的健康危害。

In recent years, the environmental quality of air get the more attention of people, especially for visibility and great harm to human health of the fine particulate matter PM2.5. On the past studies the meteorological factors of PM2.5 or single air pollutants of PM2.5 mass concentration of change were focused on the influence of a variety of air pollutants on PM2.5massconcentration of synergy was not considered. Through the Harbin city environmental protection bureau released in January 2014, （a total of 31 days） within the city the main air pollutants SO2, NO2, PM10, CO, O3, the mass concentration of PM2.5 data, using correlation analysis, PLS1 and size analysis method, study the main air pollutants in Harbin concentration changes directly affect the quality of PM2.5, indirect effects through other air pollutants and synergy between pollutants. The results show that, SO2, NO2, PM10, CO and PM2.5 mass concentration significantly related to O3 and no significant correlation between PM2.5mass concentrations, SO2, NO2, PM10, CO of mass concentration of PM2.5 PSL1 model, model of goodness of-fit-R2 is 0.852, the model fitting is good. Size analysis of the established model, the results showed that SO2, NO2, PM10, CO a direct affect on quality of PM2.5 concentration change were 0.005, -0.142, -0.140, 1.191 respectively, CO concentration changes directly affect the quality of PM2.5. SO2, NO2 and PM10 through CO have indirect effects on PM2.5concentration change were 0.706, 1.011, 1.118 respectively were greater than a direct effect on quality of PM2.5concentrations change them. SO2, NO2, PM10, CO of PM2.5 mass concentration changes of total decision coefficient was 85.9%. CO was a major air pollutant in the main factors influencing the quality of PM2.5 concentration change, reduce CO emissions from coal in winter heating period, to improve the air environmental quality, reduce the harm to the health of human body.