转型时期中国货币结构函数的实证研究——基于货币职能的理论视角

Empirical Research on Chinese Monetary Structural Function in the Transition Period ——Based on the Theoretical Perspective of Functions of Money

基于货币职能的理论视角,利用边界检验法、基于ARDL法的协整估计对转型时期的中国货币结构函数进行了计量检验。实证结果显示:实际产出、股票市场收益率、通胀预期、人民币汇率以及非国有经济比重是交易性货币需求和货币结构的长期Granger原因,而执行资产职能的货币需求函数中各经济变量间不存在长期均衡关系。从短期来看,交易性货币需求函数中误差修正项系数并不显著。为此,央行在对货币总量进行调控时,其中介目标体系应将各种影响微观经济主体行为的资产价格纳入其中,引导货币结构趋于合理化。

Based on the theoretical perspectives of monetary functions, this paper uses the bound test, Co-integration estimation of ARDL to test the monetary structure function in China during the transition period. The result shows that real output, stock market return, inflation expectation,RMB exchange rate and the proportion of non-state economy are the long-reason to the traded monetary demand and monetary structure, and there is no long--term relationship among the variables in the monetary demand function of performing assets function. In the short term, the error correction term in the traded monetary demand is not significant. So, the intermediary goal of Central Bank should contain the asset price which has impact on the micro economic subject behavior when the Central Bank regulars the monetary aggregates, so as to guide the currency structure tends to rationalization.