风险感知、应对策略与冲突升级——一个群体性事件发生机理的解释框架及运用

Risk Perception,Coping Strategies and Conflict Escalation: An Explanatory Framework for the Mechanism of Mass Incidents and Its Application

科学确定风险,而人们感知风险。许多影响社会稳定的风险之所以最终演化为严重的社会冲突,并非由于风险巨大而难以遏止和化解,而在很大程度上是根源于不同主体的风险感知差异,以及由差异导致的应对策略和行为。基于上述判断和风险感知、社会冲突等理论,本文提出了一个关于我国群体性事件发生机理的解释框架,其核心内容是"风险感知差异→应对策略和行为→冲突爆发和升级"的过程链条。文章以"昆明PX事件"为案例对该解释框架进行运用和验证,最后对这类群体性事件的综合治理问题进行了深入探讨。

Science determines risk,and people perceive risk. Many risks which affect social stability eventually evolve into serious social conflicts,not because the risks are difficult to stem and resolve,but they are largely rooted in risk perception from different stakeholders,as well as coping strategies and behaviors. This paper proposes an explanatory framework for the mechanism of mass incidents in China based on the above judgment and some theories,and the framework＇s core content is the process＂risk perception and its differences→coping strategies and behaviors→outbreak and escalation of the conflict. ＂We apply the explanatory framework into ＂Kunming PX incident＂and prove it to be effective and valid. In the end,we carry on a deep discussion on the integrated risk governance of mass incidents.