21世纪“海上丝绸之路”贸易潜力及其影响因素——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

Export Potential of 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road and Its Determinants:An Empirical Research Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

共同建设21世纪"海上丝绸之路"是推动我国新一轮对外开放、促进沿线国家共同发展的重大战略,国际贸易是该战略的基础和纽带。本文利用随机前沿引力模型研究了"海上丝绸之路"主要沿线国家间的贸易潜力,并采用一步法分析了影响因素。研究表明,"海上丝绸之路"的贸易效率在不断提升,中国对"海上丝绸之路"的出口仍有很大潜力。为进一步提高"海上丝绸之路"贸易效率,应加快推进自贸区谈判,降低关税和非关税壁垒,提高贸易便利化,加强海运互联互通,改善交通基础设施,并注重金融风险防范的合作。

To seek joint establishment of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road is an important strategy to promote the new round of China＇s opening up and to realize common development with countries along the Road, and trade is the foundation and vital link of this strategy. This paper estimates trade potential and trade efficiency of countries along the Maritime Silk Road with each other using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model, and analyzes the exogenous determinants of the trade efficiency based on One-step Estimation. The results indicate that trade efficiency of the Maritime Silk Road appears on an increasing trend, and China still has great potential in terms of export growth with other countries along the Road. In order to further improve trade efficiency, China should accelerate its regional economic integration, reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers, improve the level of trade facilitation, increase maritime connectivity, promote transport infrastructure, and strengthen cooperation on the prevention of financial risks.