比较优势与比较优势陷阱——基于黑龙江省外贸进出口数据分析

Comparative Advantage & Comparative Advantage Trap: An Empirical Analysis Based on Foreign Trade of Heilongjiang Province

比较优势理论曾对我国各地区出口导向型的开放经济产生了深远的影响,但是传统的贸易格局似乎难逃"比较优势陷阱"的怪圈。本文以比较优势、贸易条件、经济增长的相关理论为依据,对黑龙江省现有的比较优势、贸易条件以及经济增长状况进行定量分析,在此基础上采用计量统计方法对比较优势、贸易条件以及经济增长的关系进行全面研究。研究表明:黑龙江省外贸出口中,服装类商品的比较优势不断扩大,钢铁和农产品的比较劣势相对明显;黑龙江省对外贸易并未出现比较优势陷阱的总体特征,但服装类商品面临比较优势陷阱的严重威胁,机电类商品掉入比较优势陷阱的可能性则较小。

The comparative advantage theory has had a far-reaching influence on the export-oriented economy, but the traditional trade pattern always ends in the vicious circle of the comparative advantage trap. Based on the relevant theories of comparative advantage, terms of trade and economic growth, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of Heilongjiang＇ s foreign trade status, and then conducts a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between the comparative advantage, the terms of trade and the economic growth with econometrics methods. The conclusions are as follows： in the foreign export of Heilongjiang province, clothing products have a strong comparative advantage, while agricultural products and iron products have an obvious comparative disadvantage; there is no clear evidence of the general characteristic of the comparative advantage trap in Heilongjiang, but the clothing products are under a severe threat of the trap; the mechanical and electrical goods are unlikely to fall into the comparative advantage trap.