汇率变动与出口扩展边际——兼论企业异质性行为

Exchange Rate Movements, Extensive Margin of Export and Heterogeneity Behaviors of Firms

本文采用中国海关进出口数据库与中国工业企业数据库匹配后的微观企业数据实证分析企业层面实际有效汇率变动(汇率变化和汇率波动)对中国企业出口扩展边际(出口市场个数和出口商品种类数)的影响。总体样本的研究结果表明,汇率波动对企业出口扩展边际有显著的负向影响;相比之下汇率值的变化则与企业出口市场数正相关,人民币升值时会促进企业拓展出口市场;OLS和固定效应下汇率变化对企业出口商品种类的影响符号正负不一。本文进一步按照四种标准划分的子样本回归结果显示,不同企业在面临汇率变动时的反应具有异质性。

This paper draws on the import and export database of Chinese Customs combining data of China＇s industrial enterprises to analyze how firm-level real effective exchange rate movements affect Chinese firms＇ extensive margin of export. Analysis of the overall sample shows that exchange rate volatilities have a more significant negative influence on firm export while the change in exchange rate level can drive export firms to expand export markets, but different results are returned regarding how exchange rate levels affect different kinds of export commodities under OLS and FE methods. This paper also divides the sample according to different standards to capture heterogeneous reactions, and subsample regression results indeed show that different types of firms react differently in face of exchange rate movements.