创新驱动及其影响因素的实证分析:1979-2012

An Empirical Analysis on Innovation-driven Development Strategy and Its Determinants:1979-2012

利用1978 2012年省际面板数据,基于Malmquist-DEA方法测算了全要素生产率及其分解因子,并对影响因素进行实证分析,主要结论有:我国创新驱动发展现状不容乐观,技术进步的恶化是主要原因;地区创新驱动发展水平按照东、西、中部地区依次递减;样本区间不同地区间创新驱动发展水平差异有缩小趋势,创新驱动发展水平较低地区有向创新驱动发展水平较高地区追赶现象,但不同地区创新驱动发展的稳态水平与自身的特定条件有关;创新驱动的发展状况在不同发展阶段有所差异;整体样本区间回归结果中,除政府干预倾向外,对外开放水平、人力资本、非市场化程度都对创新驱动有显著正向作用,而分组回归结果显示,各因素的作用在我国加入WTO后有较大不同。

Based on provincial panel data of the year from 1978 to 2012,this paper estimates TFP and TFP＇s factors to precede an analysis on innovation-driven development strategy by using MalmquistDEA approach.Meanwhile,the impacts of determinants of innovation-driven development strategy are empirically examined.Main conclusions are as follows：First,the outlook of innovation-driven development doesn＇t seem optimistic as the deterioration of technological change is the primary cause.Second,regional innovation-driven development levels decrease successively from Eastern,Western to Central regions.Third,gaps of innovation-driven development level among different regions have been narrowed,as region of low innovation-driven development level has been catching up with region of high innovation-driven development level.However,the steady-state levels of innovation-driven development are correlated to their own endowment.Fourth,levels of innovationdriven development exhibit themselves diversified in different phases.Fifth,except for intervention tendency of government,extent of opening-up,human capital and degree of non-marketization has significantly effected on innovation-driven development in the estimates of overall samples,while between estimates of two subgroups of 1979 2001 and 2002 2012,divided by the year 2001 when China joined WTO,the determinants＇ impacts are different.