民进党“台独”路线转型的轨迹与规律之探讨--兼论蔡英文两岸政策的变与不变

On the Track and Regular Pattern of DPP's "Taiwan Independence" Transformation:also on Cai Yingwen's Change and Unchange of Cross-Strait Policy

民进党路线转型是"台湾化"与"中国化"两股力量和趋势较量的产物和缩影,伴随着岛内社会和两岸关系两大变革工程的演进而发展,是多种因素综合作用的结果。转型是必然的、自然的,也是渐进的、有限的,不同的阶段会呈现相同的反复。在大的环境结构没有质变的背景下,民进党仍然摆脱不了"台独"神主牌,但从发展趋势和应对2016年"大选"的需要考虑,民进党路线转型势在必行,其调整的时机、内容和幅度,将取决于党内"大选"参选人的意愿与意志。蔡英文一旦拿到"大选"入场券,在转型问题上不能不迈步也不可能迈大步,会探索一条"新型台独"之路,更加注重策略和包装技巧。届时外界将会看到一个"姿态百变、本质不变"的蔡氏"笑脸台独"。

By studying the progress of DPP ＂Taiwan Independence＂ policy transformation, this paper argues that DPP policy transformation is the result and miniature of two competing forces including ＂ Taiwanization＂ and ＂ Chinization＂, and it develops with the change of the Taiwan tions, and it is also a result of multiple factors. DPP policy transformation is co society and cross- Strait relampulsory and natural, and it is also gradual and limited, with the same repetition in the different stage. With no essential change of environmental structure, DPP will not get rid of its ＂Taiwan Independence＂ spirit tablet. But for the great trend and for the 2016 ＂presidential election＂, it is imperative for DPP to adapt its policy. The timing, content and range of change depends on the willingness and determination of the DPP candidate for ＂presidential election＂. Once Cai Yingwen becomes the DPP candidate for ＂presidential election＂, she will not make no pro- gress but also will not make great progress on cross - Strait policy. She will propose ＂New Taiwan Independ- ence＂ policy, with more emphasis on strategy and skills. Then Cai Yingwen will formulate ＂Taiwan Independ- ence with Smiling Face＂ policy with ＂changeable gesture but unchanged essence＂.