中央转移支付对地方财政支出的影响机制及实证分析

The Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of the Way Central Transfer Payment Affects Local Fiscal Expenditure

本文主要探讨中央转移支付如何通过影响地方政府财政支出,进而影响民生福祉。通过构建一种基于幸福经济学理论的一般均衡理论模型,并使用1997—2013年中国内地31个省域的空间面板数据,本文研究发现:地方财政支出长期存在增量预算特征;2007—2013年期间社会保障支出领域存在显著的粘蝇纸效应;1997—2006年期间地方财政的基本建设支出存在显著的攀比之风,社会消费惯性则对2007年之后的社会保障支出存在正向激励;中央转移支付对地方财政支出行为的影响机制受空间因素影响较大,在1997—2006年期间部分财政支出类型受非本省域的社会经济因素影响更大,而在2007年之后所有类型的财政支出受本省域的影响更为显著。

This paper mainly discusses how central transfer payment affects local fiscal expenditure, and thereby affecting people＇ s livelihood and welfare. By constructing a general equilibrium model based on the theory of economics of happiness, and using 31 mainland provincial spatial panel data during 1997-2013 in China, this study found that incremental budget existed in local fiscal expenditure for a long time. There＇ s significant flypaper effect in social security expenditure during 2007-2013. Significant comparison effect existed in local fiscal expenditure on basic construction during 1997-2006. Social consumption inertia had a positive incentive to the social security expenditure after 2007. The mechanism of the way central transfer payment affects local fiscal expenditure was greatly influenced by spatial factors. Some kinds of the expenditure were affected by the social and economic factors more from other provinces than the local one during 1997-2006. But all kinds of local fiscal expenditure were generally affected by the social and economic factors more from itself than other provinces after 2007.