渐进开放环境下国际资本流动的影响渠道研究——以中国房地产市场为例

Impact Path of International Capital Flows in the Process of Openness:A Case Study of Real Estate Market in China

本文以房地产市场为例研究国际资本流动对国内市场价格的影响渠道,并通过中国渐进开放过程中表现出的特征来解释不同渠道的作用逻辑。文章首先通过理论推导得出国际资本流动对国内市场价格影响的三个可能渠道:流动性渠道、货币政策渠道及财富效应渠道,并实证分析各个渠道所发挥的作用。结果表明,流动性渠道是国际资本影响房地产市场价格的主要渠道,而渐进开放过程中所表现出的持续升值和货币政策束缚抑制了货币政策效应并促使流动性渠道发挥作用。随后的稳健性检验也证实这些结论。

Based on the real estate market, the impacts of international capital flows on domestic market prices were studied, in which the characteristics showed in the process of opening play important roles. Three impact mechanisms were deduced by theory, which are the liquidity transiting mechanism, the monetary policy transiting mechanism and the wealth transiting mechanism. Besides, empirical analysis was conducted of the roles of each channel. The results show that the liquidity transiting mechanism is the main mechanism for the international capital influence. It is the continued appreciation in RMB and the potential restraint for the monetary policy that makes the liquidity effect more powerful. Robustness tests also confirmed these conclusions.