基于FAHP的露天煤矿煤层自燃火区发展态势分析

Development trend analysis of coal seam spontaneous fire zone in open-pit coal mine based on FAHP

为明确露天火区的发展状态和发展趋势,提出了基于模糊层次分析法(FAHP)的火区发展态势综合分析和评价模型。利用层次分析法构建了火区发展态势层次结构分析模型,进一步求出了指标因素相对于目标层的权重;利用模糊综合评价法建立了以指标因素为着眼因素的火区发展态势综合二级评价模型,根据评价值的大小,可将火区发展状态分为火势危险、火势较大和火势一般3个等级,将火区发展趋势分为火势增大、火势变化不大和火势减小3个等级。经实际分析,在安太堡露天火区某个治理周期前后,火势大小评价结果为0.997 3和0.638 5,火势变化评价结果为-0.559 1,火势由危险变为较大,有了明显降低,说明治理措施有效性显著。

In order to define development status and trend in open-pit fire zone, the article presents fire zone development trend comprehensive analysis and evaluation model based on FAHP. Using FAHP, the article establishes fire zone development trend hierarchical structure analysis model and calculates weights of index factors relative to target layer. Using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the article establishes fire zone development trend comprehensive level 2 evaluation model based on index factors. According to appraisal value, the article divides fire zone development state into danger, large and general. Through experiment analysis, the evaluation results of fire behavior size are 0.997 3 and 0.638 5, the change of fire behavior is -0.559 1 before and after the fire zone treatment period in Antaibao open-pit coal mine. Fire behavior significantly reduced which indicates that treatment measures are significant.