2014/2015年上海经济形势分析报告

2014/2015Shanghai Economic Situation Analysis Report

2014年,上海经济运行总体平稳,稳中有进,预计全年GDP增速达7%,呈现与全国不完全相同的经济新常态。2015年世界经济形势依然错综复杂,美元加速升值将成为影响全球经济增长的最大因素,中国经济增长需要防范房地产市场降温、土地收入与财政收入下滑、地方政府债务上升"三碰头"等风险。在这种情况下,2015年上海经济依然存在着下行压力,同时也有有利的增长因素:一是自贸试验区改革开放进一步深化,将拉动经济增长;二是"营改增"全覆盖将进一步带动相关服务业发展;三是利率下调和房地产相关政策调整将有利于活跃股市和稳定房市。因此,经过努力,上海经济仍有可能达到7%左右的增速。

In 2014, Shanghai economy has been smooth in general; steady progress has been achieved, with an expected annual GDP growth rate of 7%, which shows the new normal that is different from the rest of the country. In 2015 world economic situation is still complicated： the accelerated appreciation of the US dollar will be the biggest factor affecting the growth of the global economy; Chinffs economic growth need to guard against cool down of the real estate market, the decline of land revenue and fiscal revenue, the ＂three meet＂ and the increase of local government debt and other risks. In this case, there still exist possibilities that the 2015 Shanghai economy will go downward, but there are also some advantageous factors： firstly, the further deepening of reform and opening up of FTA test area will stimulate economic growth; the second is that the full coverage of the policy to replace the business tax with a valueadded tax will further promote the development of related service industry; the third is that interest rates decrease and real estate related policy adjustments will help to stabilize the housing market and activate stock market. ＇Therefore, through the efforts Shanghai economy is still possible to achieve the growth rate of about 7 %.