基于质量可靠性的质保索赔数预测方法研究

Research on Warranty Claim Forecasting Based on Product Reliability

本文分析了质保数据的形式与整合方法,介绍了失效率与失效函数在质保索赔中的应用。从可靠性的角度出发,构建了基于非齐次泊松过程的预测模型。本文用挖掘机的质保索赔数据进行了案例研究。案例研究表明,该方法在预测误差度上优于传统的时间序列模型和ARIMA模型。

Based on the introduction of the form of warranty data, the paper analyzes how to use warranty data in a proper way and introduces the application of hazard function into the warranty data analysis. A warranty claim prediction model is established based on Non-homogenous Poisson Process by the use of hazard function. The paper also introduces case study by using the warranty data of a excavator manufacturer, proving our model outperforms exponential series model and ARIMA model in the prediction errors.