碳交易政策的经济影响:以广东省为例

Economic Impacts of Carbon Emission Trading: Case Study on Guangdong Province

通过构建广东省两区域动态模型,对广东省碳交易及其他政策措施进行定量评估,分析实施可调控总量的碳交易政策机制对广东省及参与交易部门的经济影响。研究结果表明,按照减排情景到2015年广东完成19.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景,GDP将减少0.7%;按照强减排情景到2015年将完成20.5%的碳强度下降目标,相比基准情景GDP将减少0.9%;如果在强减排情景的基础上实施碳交易政策,GDP相对基准情景减少0.8%,到2015年实施碳交易政策可减少GDP损失约90亿元,说明广东建立碳排放权交易机制能够发挥支持经济发展和节能减碳双赢的作用。

Using a dynamic two-region computable general equilibrium model, this study conducted a quantitative assessment of the impacts of carbon emission trading on the economy of Guangdong Province, the participating sectors and the carbon trading prices. The results show that, in accordance with the energy conservation scenario to be completed by 2015（19.5% decline in carbon intensity）, GDP will lose 0.7% compared with the baseline scenario;according to a low-carbon scenario to be completed by 2015（20.5% decline in carbon intensity）, GDP will lose 0.9%compared with the baseline scenario; if carbon trading policy is implemented in the low-carbon scenario, GDP will lose 0.8% relative to the baseline scenario. The results show that the carbon trading policy can save about 9 billion yuan RMB. This analysis supports Guangdong Province to achieve both economic development and carbon emission reduction target.