少数民族地区经济发展因素的实证分析——以恩施州为例

An Empirical Research on Economic Development Factors in Ethnic Minority Areas ——Taking Enshi as an example

基于对恩施土家族苗族自治州(以下简称"恩施州")的深入研究,探讨了我国少数民族地区经济发展路径问题,总结出我国少数民族地区经济发展落后的几个重要原因。通过协整-误差修正模型实证研究了恩施州1999年至2012年间影响当地经济发展的几大重要影响因素,得出结论:恩施经济发展与全州居民消费零售总额、全州固定资产投资总额以及全州地方一般预算支出存在长期均衡关系。长期来看,居民消费总额对恩施州经济增长贡献最大,政府购买对当地经济的贡献其次,全社会固定资产投资对当地经济贡献第三。短期来看,当经济出现巨大波动时,经济系统会很快自动调节经济状态。

Based on the further research on Enshi, Tujia and Miao Ethnic minority, this paper explores economic development path Chinese ethnic minority areas. Some important reasons for the lag in economic development have been gotten. By means of the co-integration and error correction model, we did an empirical research on several important factors affecting the local economic development between 1999 and 2012 in Enshi. The finding has been got that the economic development of Enshi keeps a long-run equilibrium relationship with a state of total retail sales of consumer spending, a state of total investment in fixed assets and the state of the local general budget expenditures. In the long run, the total amount of residents＆#39; consumption of Enshi makes the largest contribution to the economic growth, government purchase, the second and the whole society fixed assets investment, the third. In the short run, when the huge economic fluctuation happens, the economic system will automatically adjust the economic status quickly.