内燃机活塞环槽磨损量的灰色预测模型

Grey Forecasting Model for Wear Extent of Ring Grooves in the Internal Combustion Engine

为实现对活塞环槽磨损量的有效、准确、动态预测,本文根据活塞环槽磨损的基本规律,设定了一组活塞环槽磨损量的理论数据,在此基础上,采用灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)预测模型,对活塞环槽的磨损量进行灰色建模,并借助Matlab进行灰色计算。计算结果表明:活塞环槽磨损量的灰色预测模型可以较为准确地预测环槽磨损量,相对残差在8%以内;随着预测数据量的增加,模型的预测精度进一步提高,相对残差稳定在2.5%以内。该模型的建立对内燃机活塞环槽磨损量的预测和活塞的修复和更换具有一定的现实指导意义。

To realize effective, accurate and dynamic prediction for wear extent of piston ring grooves, according to the basic law of wear extent of piston ring grooves, the paper set a set of theoretical data of wear extent. On that basis, by GM （ 1, 1 ） model of grey system theory, the paper set up grey model of wear extent and calculate by Matlab. The calculating results show that the grey forecasting model for wear extent of ring grooves predicts wear extent accurately, and relative residuals can be limited within 8%. With the increase of forecast data, the prediction precision is further improved and relative residuals can be limited within 2.5 %. The establishment of this model has certain directive significance to predict wear extent of piston ring grooves and for repair and replacement of piston.