南水北调工程供水效益与受水地区经济增长的关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between Water Supply Benefits of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and Economic Growth of Water Areas

南水北调工程通过对水资源的优化配置,在解决缺水地区用水紧张问题的同时,也保证了城乡之间和区域之间经济和社会的可持续发展。实际上,南水北调工程的供水效益与受水地区的经济增长之间存在着一定关联性,采用灰色系统理论建立灰色关联分析模型,以通榆河北沿送水工程为例,通过处理历史数据,证实其供水效益与受水地区连云港经济增长之间存在较高的关联性。并通过计算各因素关联程度的大小和分析两者具有相关性的原因,为政府制订更加合理的调水工程发展策略提供参考。

Through the optimized allocation of water resources,the South-to-North water diversion project not only solves the problem of water use in water shortage region, but also ensures sustainable development of economy and society for urban-rural areas and regional areas. Actually, there exists a connection between water supply benefits of the South-to-North water diversion project and economic growth of the water areas. This study uses gray system theory to establish grey correlation analysis model, and takes Tongyu river water-sending-north project for case study to confirm that its water supply benefits has a high correlation with economic growth of the water areas—Lianyungang. This study also formulates more reasonable water diversion project development strategy for the government through calculating the size of the correlation degree of various factors and analyzing the relevant reasons.