人口老龄化与中国经济增长——基于CES生产函数的分析

Population Aging and Economic Growth in China

将人口老龄化指标纳入新古典经济增长模型后,理论上认为人口结构变迁对经济增长有负面影响。但运用协整检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等手段的实证检验结果表明:过去三十年,中国人口老龄化和储蓄率与经济增长正相关,人口增长率与经济增长负相关。但从长期看,我国人口老龄化、储蓄率、人口增长率均与人均实际产出呈反向相关关系。故需要稳健调整现行计划生育政策、完善社会保障体系、强化对储蓄-投资有效转化的引导,在关注人口数量及人口年龄结构的同时,更应关注人口质量。

This article analyze theoretically that population aging has a negative impact on economic growth by developing the neo-classical economic growth model with factor of population aging. But the empirical results show that in the past 30 years, an aging population and the savings rate are positively, and population growth rate is negatively related to the economic growth. In the long run, China＇s population aging, savings rate, the increasing rate of population are all inversely related to the real output per capita. Therefore, we should change the family planning policy, improve the social security system, promote the transformation of savings into invest- ment effectively, pay more attention to population quality, etc.