中国全球变化趋势与南水北调西线工程的全球变化风险

GLOBAL CHANGE TENDENCY IN CHINA AND GLOBAL CHANGE RISK FROM THE WESTERN ROUTE OF CHINESE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER TRANSFER PROJECT

从全球变化演化历史、发展趋势及其对地球多圈层的影响出发,总结、分析了中国白垩纪以来全球变化的演化过程,认为青藏高原是全球变化的发动机、东亚水循环的心脏,气候带快速漂变是当前全球变化的特点,南旱北湿是中国全球变化的发展趋势。分析了南水北调西线工程的全球变化风险,认为在青藏高原腹地兴建调水工程不是跨流域调水而是跨源区调水,可能导致人类难以应对的全球变化,建议放弃南水北调西线工程实施计划,规避由此带来的潜在风险。

Based on the global change history,tendency and its effect on multi-spheres of the earth,the global change process since the Cretaceous is summarized in this paper.It is concluded that the Tibetan Plateau is the engine of the global change and the heart of the hydrologic cycle over the eastern Asian.Quick drifting of climatic zone is the characteristics of today global change,and humid in the north China and arid in the south China will be the global change trend of China.The global change risk in the Western Route of Chinese South-to-North Water Transfer Project is prospected and it is considered that the water transfer project in interior of the Tibetan Plateau is not inter-drainage water transfer project but inter-source water transfer project and possibly generates global change,which is hard to overcome by human beings.Therefore,it is suggested to give up the project to avoid the potential risk.