重庆市环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与分析

Test and Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Chongqing City

随着经济持续发展,西部地区环境与经济矛盾日益突出,为研究西部地区经济与环境关系,本文以重庆市为例,选取1990年～2011年共22年的经济指标（人均GDP）与污染物（废水、工业废气、工业固体废弃物等）排放量为环境指标,建立经济与环境指标的协同演化模型,绘制环境库兹涅茨曲线并对重庆市经济与环境协同发展关系进行研究;结果表明：重庆市人均GDP与工业废水排放量之间呈现明显EKC关系,其转折点为2005年,即人均GDP为10982元;重庆市人均GDP与工业SO2排放量及与工业烟尘排放量和工业固体废物排放的良性关系出现和将要出现在2010年和2015年;重庆市人均GDP与总体的工业“三废”排放量之间呈现出明显的倒“U”EKC关系,2006年以后,随着人均GDP的增加,工业“三废”排放量不断减少,2011年时,工业“三废”排放量趋于平缓.由此也说明,重庆市工业“三废”排放量有明显好转的趋势.

With the sustained development of economy, the contradiction between environment and economy has been increasing prominent in west area. In order to study the relationship of economy and environment in west area, this paper took Chongqing as an example, with the selection of 22 years＇ indexes of economic growth and pollution emissions between 1990 and 2011. This study established the model between per capita GDP and environment pollution, and then drew the Environmental Kuznets Curve to study the relationship between the coordinated development of economic and environment in Chongqing. The results showed that, Per capital GDP and industrial waste water emissions presented obvious EKC relationship, with the turning point -GDP per capita of $10982 in 2005 of Chongqing; the coordinated relationship between per capita GDP and industrial SO2emissions appeared and would appear in both of 2010 and 2015 of Chongqing; Per capita GDP and industrial ＂three waste＂ emissions presented obvious inverted ＂U＂ EKC relationship. After 2006, with the increase of per GDP, the emissions of industrial ＂three wastes＂ continued to decrease, and in 2011, the emissions began to flatten out. Therefore, the emission of industrial ＂three wastes＂ will have a trendency to improve obviously in Chongqing.