服务业集聚、对外开放水平与地区经济增长——基于我国231个城市的门限回归模型检验

Service Industry Agglomeration,the Level of Opening up and Regional Economic Growth——Threshold Regression Model Test Based on the Panel Data of 231 Cities in China

基于我国231个城市2003-2012年面板数据,分析开放经济条件下城市服务业集聚对经济增长的影响及差异,以对外开放水平作为门限变量构造门限回归模型,并进行实证检验。结果表明城市服务业集聚对经济增长的影响存在门限效应。在对外开放水平较低区间内,服务业集聚对经济增长具有不显著的正向推动作用;在对外开放水平较高区间内则具有非常不显著的负向作用;而在这两个区间之间,服务业集聚的经济增长效应非常显著。最后提出建议:主要分布在较低区间的内陆城市需加大力度提高对外开放水平,而主要分布在较高区间的沿海城市在提高对外开放水平的同时要提升本地区服务业竞争力,从而更好地发挥服务业集聚的经济增长效应。

Under the condition of open economy,the paper analyses the difference of city service industry agglomeration impacting on economic growth. Based on the panel data of 231 cities in China from 2003 to2012,the paper constructs threshold regression model for the empirical test with the level of opening up as a threshold variable. The results show that there is threshold effect on the economic growth for the service industry agglomeration in city. In the range of the lower level of opening up,service industry agglomeration does not have a significantly positive effect on economic growth; in the range of higher level of opening up,the effect is negative but not very significant; while between the two range,the economic growth effect of service industry agglomeration is very significant. This requires the inland cities which are mainly distributed in the lower range improve the level of opening up continuously; the coastal cities which are mainly distributed in the higher range not only improve the level of opening up,but also promote the competitiveness of the local service in order to develop the economic growth effect of service industry agglomeration better.