灰色系统理论在地铁轮对踏面磨损预测中的应用

Application of Grey System Theory in Prediction of Metro Wheel Wear

车轮作为车辆关键走行部件和易磨损部件之一,其磨损量直接关系到车轮的使用寿命。为准确获得车轮踏面随走行距离磨损量变化情况,本文采用灰色系统理论,建立车轮踏面磨损量灰色预测模型,在少量车轮踏面磨损数据的基础上,研究车轮随走行距离踏面磨损量的灰色预测方法。实例分析和仿真结果表明,灰色系统理论应用于车轮踏面磨损量的预测中是可行有效的。为车轮在实际行驶过程中踏面磨损的准确预测及使用寿命的判决提供了一种可行的求解方法。

The wheel being one of the key running parts and easy wear parts of a vehicle,its wear volume is directly related to the service life of the wheel.In order to acquire accurate changes of wheel tread wear volumes along with changing of running distances of the wheel,the grey forecast model of the wear volume of wheel tread was established by applying the grey system theory.On the basis of a small number of wheel tread wear data,this paper studied the grey forecasting method which dealt with the situation where wheel tread wear volumes change with wheel running distances.Case analysis and simulation results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.So a feasible solution is given for accurately predicting the wear and judging the service life of the wheel tread in running operation.