上海市徐汇区猩红热流行趋势分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction on Epidemiology Tendency and Prediction of Scarlet Fever in Xuhui District of Shanghai

目的 了解徐汇区猩红热流行病学特征和流行趋势,为制定有效的防控措施提供科学依据.方法 对徐汇区2005-2013年猩红热疫情进行描述性流行病学分析,采用流行控制图法对2014年发病情况进行预测.结果 2005-2013年徐汇区累计报告猩红热病例811例,年均发病率为7.45/10万;高发期集中在4～6月份和12～1月份;男女比例为1.85∶1;811例病例中,学生占55.61％,幼托儿童占38.10％,散居儿童占6.17％,工人占0.12％;5～8岁年龄组占病例总数的69.54％;流行控制图法预测2014年猩红热发病呈现散发.结论 学校、托幼机构是猩红热发病的高危场所,应加强学校和托幼机构的疫情监测和健康教育工作,达到有效控制猩红热疫情的目的.

OBJECTIVE To understand the epidemiological characteristics and tendency of scarlet fever in Xuhui District, and provide scientific evidence for the development of effective prevention and control measures. METHODS Epidemic of scarlet fever in Xuhui district from 2005 to 2013 was analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. Epidemiological tendency was predicted by epidemic control chart. RESULTS From 2005 to 2013, a total of 811 cases were reported in Xuhui district, the average annual incidence rate was 7.45/100 000; Most cases concentrated from April to June and from December to January; the ratio of male to female was 1.85：1; Among the 811 cases, students, kindergarten children, scattered children and workers accounted for 55.61%, 38.10%, 6.17% and 0.12% respectively; the cases from 5-8 years accounted for 69.54%; predict incidence is low by epidemic control chart in 2014. CON- CLUSION Schools and kindergartens are the environment with high risk of scarlet fever, the surveillance and health education in schools and kindergartens should be further strengthened to control scarlet fever epidemic effectively.