区域自然灾害的社会脆弱性评估——以河南省为例

Social Vulnerability Assessment for Regional Natural Disasters-A Case Study of He'nan Province

脆弱性研究对区域防灾减灾规划和灾害风险管理具有极其重要的作用。以灾害频发的河南省为研究区,以区内各地市为基本评价单元,运用秩次相关分析和PCA法筛选出11个相互独立的影响因子,构建了河南省自然灾害社会脆弱性评估模型。利用AHP法确定各指标的相对权重,采用综合指数法对各评价单元的社会弱性进行了评估,并借助ArcGIS软件对评估结果进行了区划制图研究。结果表明:(1)河南省自然灾害的社会脆弱性呈现出一定的地域分布规律。(2)周口市、商丘市和驻马店市社会脆弱性等级为Ⅲ,属高脆弱区;郑州市、济源市与三门峡市自然灾害的社会脆弱性等级为Ⅰ,属低脆弱区;其他地市评价等级为Ⅱ,属中等脆弱区。(3)全省所处高、中和低社会脆弱性的面积比例分别为22.68%,65.35%和11.97%。

The study on vulnerability plays an important role in planning of prevention and mitigation,and risk management of regional disasters.He＇nan province,suffered from frequent natural disasters,was taken as the study area,and the prefecture-level cities as basic assessment unit.Eleven independent impact factors were selected using rank correlation analysis and PCA（principal component analysis）method,and the assessment model of social vulnerability was constructed.The relative weights of each index were determined using the AHP（ainalytical hierarchy process）method,and the social vulnerability to natural disasters of each unit was assessed using the comprehensive index method.The assessment results were mapped and studied using ArcGIS software.The results showed that：（1）The social vulnerability to natural disasters presented a certain regional distribution pattern.（2）Zhoukou City,Shangqiu City and Zhumadian City were in higher social vulnerable area,belongs to levelⅢ,Zhengzhou City,Jiyuan City and Sanmenxia City were in lower social vulnerable area,the levelⅠ,and others were in moderate social vulnerable area,the levelⅡ.（3）The area ratio of He＇nan Province in higher,moderate and lower social vulnerable area was 22.68%,65.35%and 11.97%,respectively.