基于地统计学的三峡库区重庆段耕地人口承载力时空特征研究

Research on Spatial-temporal Characteristics of Population Carrying Capacity of Cropland in Three Gorges Reservoir Area at Chongqing Section Based on Geo-statistical Method

采用三峡库区2007和2010年遥感数据及社会经济统计数据,采用全覆盖的20km×20km网格划分空间样地,运用地统计学方法对三峡库区重庆段耕地人口承载力空间分布特征进行了模拟与分析。结果表明,2007—2010年三峡库区耕地承载力盈亏值发生改变。2007年耕地承载力超载463.76万人,2010年耕地承载人口具有56.57万人的潜力空间。三峡库区耕地承载力具有明显的趋势效应,东西方向呈1阶,南北方向呈多阶。耕地承载力的空间相关性较高。三峡库区耕地承载力空间分布呈现明显的条带状,并具有由西南到东北逐渐降低的趋势。2007—2010年,耕地承载力空间分布有所变化,主城9区的西南部承载力上升,江津区以及长寿区的耕地承载力降低明显。

Collecting the statistical data of remote sensing and socio-economy in Three Gorges Reservoir area in 2007 and 2010,the full cover 20km×20km grid were adopted to generat the space plots.Based on the geo-statistical method,the spatial distribution of population carrying capacity of cropland in Chongqing section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area were simulated and analyzed.The results indicated that,the carrying capacity of cropland＇s profit and loss value in Three Gorges Reservoir area changed from 2007 to 2010.The carrying capacity of cropland overloaded 4.637 6million people in 2007.And in 2010,the carrying capacity of cropland had a potential space for 565 700 people.The carrying capacity of cropland in Three Gorges Reservoir area had an obvious trend effect.In east-west direction,the trend effect was 1-order,and was multiorder in the north-south direction;The carrying capacity of cropland had strong spatial correlation.The spatial distribution of carrying capacity of cropland was in banding shape in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,and it reduced gradually from southwest to northeast.From 2007 to 2010,the spatial distribution of carrying capacity of cropland changed,and the capacity increased in the southwest part of nine districts,while reduced obviously in Jiangjin and Changshou Districts.