周期性视角的社会保险发展同步性比较研究——基于参保人数、基金收入和基金结余增长维度

A Periodicity- Perspective Comparative Study of Social Insurance Development Synchronization——Based on Growth Dimensions of Insurance Number,Fund Income and Fund Balance

社会保险存在上下空间,然而中国社会保险增长呈现出非平衡的状况。本文运用HP滤波分解和统计描述的方法对中国社会保险发展的周期性阶段和同步性分布进行检验。实证检验显示:第一,养老保险、医疗保险、失业保险、工伤保险、生育保险在参保人数增长、基金收入增长、基金结余增长三个维度均存在正缺口或负缺口;第二,在三个维度上,社会保险发展所处的繁荣或衰退阶段是不同的;第三,在三个维度上社会保险发展的同步性概率也存在差别。本文最后得出两点政策启示。

Social insurance has its top and bottom space, but China social insurance growth presents a non -equilibrium. This paper tests the periodic phase and synchronic distribution of China social insurance development by HP filter decomposition and statistical description. The empirical test shows that pension insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, industrial injury insurance and maternity insurance have positive or negative gaps in terms of insurance number growth, fund income growth and fund balance growth, and that in the above three dimensions social insurance development is different both in developing phases, prosperous or declining, and in synchronization probability. And two policy implications are derived.