基于Weibull分布的航空装备部件寿命预测研究

Weibull Distribution Based Lifetime Prediction for Components of Aerial Equipments

针对现代航空装备的PHM需求,为提高Weibull分布在寿命预测中的精确度,提出了综合运用最小二乘法及平均秩次法对预测模型进行参数估计的方法,在此基础上建立了航空装备部件的寿命预测模型。对某型歼击机上航电系统中15个相同的核心部件进行了实验,分别用近似中位秩公式和平均秩次法处理实验数据,并对二者的拟合效果进行对比分析,结果显示平均秩次法的估计精度较高。寿命预测的结果表明,设备工作到3106.2 h后可靠度下降到50%以下,与实际维护中平均每3000 h进行一次检修或更换部件的情况基本相符。

Aiming at the PHM demand of modern aerial equipment,a method for parameter estimation was proposed by using the least squares method together with mean rank order to improve the precision of Weibull distribution in lifetime forecast.On which basis,a lifetime forecast model was established for components of aerial equipment.An experiment was made for 15 same core components of the avionic system onboard a fighter plane.The approximate median rank and mean rank order was used to deal with the data independently.The effect contrast showed that the latter one has a higher estimation precision.The lifetime forecast result showed that：the equipment reliability descend to 50% after 3106.2 h,which is consistent with the maintenance frequency of every 3000 h in application.