我国城镇登记失业率分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of China's Registered Urban Unemployment Rate

笔者依据就业问题的相关理论,选取对城镇失业率水平有显著影响的经济指标,利用多元时间序列分析方法对我国近几年的经济数据进行分析,并探讨了我国城镇失业率的主要影响因素及其与城镇失业率之间的联系,得出我国城镇登记失业率和国内生产总值增速_累计(前推3期)、银行间同业拆借加权平均利率负相关,城镇家庭人均可支配收入_季度累计等因素负相关。

This paper based on the related theory of the employment problem, select the economic index has a significant impact on the urban unemployment rate levels, using multivariate time series analysis method to analyzed our country’s eco-nomic data in recent years, and discusses the main factors, such as our country urban registered unemployment rate and GDP growth cumulative （before pushing the 3 period）, the inter-bank weighted average interest rate of negative correlation, urban per capita disposable income quarterly factors, which influence the urban unemployment rate and its relationship with the ur-ban unemployment rate.