我国货币政策对人民币汇率影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Effect of China's Monetary Policy on the RMB Exchange Rate

文章基于2005年7月21日我国人民币汇率改革以来的连续时间序列数据和离散数据,利用多元回归模型,实证研究了人民币汇率市场化改革以来我国货币政策对人民币汇率的影响。实证结果表明:我国货币政策的两个变量—货币供应量和利率,会对人民币汇率产生显著的影响,其中人民币货币供应量增加会引起人民币汇率贬值,银行间信用隔夜拆借利率上升可以引起人民币汇率升值。因此,中国在稳步推进人民币汇率制度改革同时,应有效监控我国货币供应量对汇率的影响,密切关注银行间同业拆解利率对人民币汇率波动的影响,从而促进我国经济内外平衡和外汇市场的平稳健康发展。

This paper empirically studies the impact of china＇s monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate by using multivariate regression models on the basis of a continuous time series data and discrete data since July 21, 2005 of the RMB exchange rate market-oriented reforms. The empirical results show that the two variables of china＇s monetary policy-the money supply and interest rates have a significant effect on the RMB exchange rate. The increase in money supply will cause RMB exchange rate depreciation and the increase in overnight lending rate of the inter-banks will cause RMB exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, when steadily promoting the reform of RMB exchange rate regime, China should effectively monitor the effect of money supply on the exchange rate and pay close attention to the impact of interbank interest rates on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations so as to contribute to internal and external balance of the economy and the stable and healthy development of the foreign exchange market.