建筑工程全寿命周期成本分析中基准折现率分区域取值

Sub-regional value of benchmark discount rate in life-cycle cost analysis of construction project

折现率取值的细微不同直接影响建筑工程项目全寿命周期成本分析的结果,而统一发布的社会折现率不能如实反映不同地区相似建设项目总成本的差别.试图对建筑行业分区域差异化选取基准折现率进行研究,根据建筑行业统计数据,运用因子分析法、加权平均资本成本法等方法,将中国各地进行分类,并计算出不同类型地的基准折现率,建议中国建筑行业基准折现率在10%~12%的区间内取值.运用随机数模型对中国长周期折现率的取值进行预测,结果显示长周期等效折现率随时间服从对数衰减形式,并给出推荐的取值方案.

Result of life-cycle cost analysis in construction industry is directly influenced by discount rate.Social discount rate can not reflect the difference of cost between the similar projects in different locations.This paper attempts to explore the sub-regional benchmark discount rate in construction industry.Classifying the provinces of China mainland according to the statistics of construction industry with clustering analysis method,the weighted average cost of capital and other methods to calculate the benchmark discount rate of each region which suggest the benchmark discount rate in construction industry be valued between 10% and 12%.Forecasting the long period benchmark discount rate by random number model,the result reveals that long-term equivalent discount rate is a declining logarithmic function with passage of time and the referenced values are calculated.