重庆市城市化发展与预测研究——基于政府政策干预分析模型

Study on Urbanization Development and Prediction in Chongqing:Based on Intervention Analysis Model of Government Policy

文章以重庆市1997-2012年的城市化率为样本数据,以政府政策为干预变量,建立了干预分析模型,并动态预测分析了重庆市城市化水平。结果显示.城市化对政府政策干预的响应存在波动偏差;未来几年重庆市城市化水平将进一步提高,且城市化发展速度处在加速阶段,基本能够实现到201 5年城市化率达到60%的目标。最后提出了要走出一条符合重庆实际的新型城市化道路的政策建议。

Using government policy as an intervention variable, this paper establishes intervention analysis model based on the data of urbanization rate from 1997 to 2012 in Chongqing. Then dynamic prediction and analysis of urbanization level are conducted. The conclusions are as follows： urbanization response to the government policy intervention is volatility of deviation; urbanization level in the next years will be further improved, and the speed of urbanization is at the accelerating stage, and urbanization rate can be up to 60% in 2015. Finally suggestions about urbanization construction are offered that Chongqing should take a new road of urbanization in line with Chongqing＇s actual conditions.