基于ARIMA模型的产业集群稳定性研究

Study of Industrial Cluster Stability Based on ARIMA Model

通过统计分析产业集群月产出量数列平稳性,运用时间序列分析方法,建立产业集群ARIMA模型,预测在某一时间点的产业集群产出情况,为生态园产业链稳定性建设提供理论依据。通过实际数据研究,运用EViews软件,验证产业集群ARIMA模型可行性。为解决产业集群稳定性预测中"外部扰动"因素对稳定性的影响,提供了理论途径。为产业集群建设稳定持续的发展提供了科学有效的理论方法。

This paper analyses output series stationarity of industrial cluster through the statistical method of time series analysis method, establishes ARIMA model of industrial cluster, predicts the output of industrial cluster at some point, provides theoretical basis for construction of ecological industry chain stability. Through the actual data research, it verifies ARIMA model feasibility of industrial cluster by using EViews software. It provides a theoretical way to solve ＂external disturbance＂ that affects the stability in the stability prediction of industrial cluster. It provides a scientific and effective theory and method for the stable development of industrial cluster construction.