GM模型在矿建工程施工目标集成管理中的应用研究

GM model application in mine construction objectives integrated management

质量、成本、工期是项目管理的三大目标,而传统挣值管理缺少对质量目标的管理,结合挣值管理加入质量系数来实现项目管理目标的集成管理。针对传统挣值管理具有的只能根据现有数据进行趋势预测的缺点,利用GM模型能进行数据序列预测的优势对矿建工程数据建立GM(1,1)模型。以井筒建设为例建立模型,从预测结果看,模型预测具有临近时点精度高,"累计造价"的预测误差(1%左右)小于对"月度造价"误差(3%左右)的特点。所以,GM(1,1)模型与挣值管理的联合应用完全能够对矿井建设的施工起到指导作用。

Quality,cost and schedule are the three objectives of project management,earned value management and lack of traditional quality management objectives,combined with earned value management added mass coefficient to achieve integrated management project management goals.For the shortcomings of traditional Earned Value Management has predicted the trend can only be based on existing data,the use of GM model can predict the data sequence advantage of mine construction project data to establish GM（1,1）model.From the prediction results,the model predictions with high accuracy near the point,the＂total cost＂of the prediction error（about 1%）is less than the＂monthly cost＂error（about 3%）features.So GM（1,1）model with a combination of earned value management is fully capable of building on the construction of mine play aguiding role.