全球价值链分工与世界经济失衡——兼论经济失衡的持续性与世界经济再平衡路径选择

Global Value Chain Specialization and World Economic Imbalance: Persistence of Economic Imbalance and Path to Rebalance World Economy

文章基于1996—2009年40个国家／地区35个细分行业的世界投入产出表进行研究。首先，以典型国家、行业为例进行统计分析发现：全球价值链分工扭曲了经济失衡程度，但对经济失衡方向无实质影响；中国经济失衡主要来自制造业和商业服务业，中低端制造业贡献最大，中高端制造业的贡献逐年上升，发展商业服务业有助于缓解经济失衡。其次，计量检验结果表明：全球价值链分工对世界经济失衡有显著的正向影响；这种正向效应在发达国家的影响大于发展中国家；对商业服务业和中高与高技术制造业的影响大于低技术和中低技术制造业；在制造业中，影响程度随着技术含量上升而增加。故世界经济失衡具有持续性，世界经济再平衡路径不是改变现有的全球分工模式，而是调整分工导致的“产业结构失衡”和避免“路径依赖”。

This paper uses the World Input-Output Database covering 40 countries / regions and 35 industries over the period of 1996 ~2009. Firstly,the analysis of some classic countries and industries shows that while Global Value Chain( GVC) specialization distorts the extent of economic imbalance,it does not exert any substantive influence on the direction of economic imbalance.Manufacturing and Business Service( BS) industries are the dominant source of economic imbalance in China,with Low-Tech( LT) and Medium-Low-Tech( MLT) manufacturing industries being the culprit while the contribution of Medium-High-and-HighTech( M-HT&HT) manufacturing industries increases steadily every year. Developing BS industry can alleviate economic imbalance. Secondly,econometric analysis indicates that GVC specialization has a significant positive effect on economic imbalance.The positive effect is higher in developed countries than in developing countries. It is also higher in M-HT&HT manufacturing industries and BS industries than in LT and MLT manufacturing industries. When it comes to the manufacturing industry,the positive effect expands with the increase of technical content. In a word,world economic imbalance will sustain. The path towards world economic rebalance is not by changing the pattern of GVC specialization but by adjusting ' the imbalance in the industrial structure' caused by such specialization and by avoiding 'path-dependence'.