财政支出扩张是否加剧了贸易平衡恶化?——对世界主要经济体的实证考察

Does Expansion of Fiscal Expenditure Aggravate Trade Balance?: Empirical Studies of World's Major Economies

文章基于面板向量自回归（PVAR）基准模型和拓展模型，利用世界主要经济体1998～2012年的经济数据实证检验了财政支出对贸易平衡的动态冲击效应。研究表明：财政支出扩张对贸易平衡的冲击效应十分有限，长期内财政支出对贸易平衡缺乏直接的影响机制；价格水平、利率和实际汇率等传导性因素对财政支出与贸易平衡的动态关系未能形成有效的传导机制，财政支出扩张对贸易平衡也不会产生间接的影响；剔除财政支出、区分贸易类型等形式的稳健性检验，进一步保证了PVAR模型设定的有效性和分析结论的可靠性，通过45个国家的经验证据证实了传统研究中关于“李嘉图等价”假说的适用性。

Utilizing world's main economies' data from 1998 to 2012,this paper conducts empirical research with basic and extended panel vector autoregressive( PVAR) model to estimate the impact of dynamic shock of fiscal expenditure on trade balance. It shows that fiscal expenditure expansion has very limited shocking impact on trade balance,and there is no mechanism for fiscal expenditure to exert direct influence on trade balance in the long run. Transmission factors such as price,interest rate and real exchange rate fail to form an effective transmission mechanism that can influence the interactions between fiscal expenditure and trade balance. Further,expansion of fiscal expenditure does not even have an indirect impact on trade balance. Robust tests are conducted by excluding fiscal expenditure and differentiating types of trade. Results of such tests further guarantee the viability of PVAR model and the reliability of the analytical conclusion drawn under the model. Empirical evidence of forty-five countries confirms the applicability of ' Ricardian Equivalence' in traditional research.